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WORLD OSTRICH ASSOCIATION Mission Statement |
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Newsletter No. 57 – December, 2007
1. World Poultry Ostrich Blog 2. World Meat Consumption Data 3. Market Size 4. What is our Current Selling Price?
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1. World Poultry Ostrich Blog Last month we announced the introduction of an Ostrich Blog on World Poultry. This month, in the light of more cases of H5N1 avian influenza in Europe, the blog raised the discussion on confinement of ostrich and asked: “In the event of an avian influenza outbreak, can you suggest, other than those mentioned above, other strategies to avoid ostrich confinement?” The question triggered a number of responses, two of which were from your directors. At the time of publication, 6 responses have been received. The whole discussion can be viewed at: http://www.worldpoultry.net/blogs/id102-35801/action/showDetails/disease_and_ostrich_confinement.html.
2. World Meat Consumption Data
The FAO have been updating their database system and providing improved data, with a greater breakdown of the alternative meats, the market that Ostrich are sold into when doing a request for consumption of all meat. Previously we had Bovine, Pigs, Sheep and Goat, Poultry and other meats. Today, Turkey and Chicken meat have separate categories. Duck, Goose and Guinea Fowl also have their own separate category. Ostrich fall into ‘Other meats’, not elsewhere classified (inc. Camel and game).
We are continually asked about the size of our markets. Therefore this month’s newsletter will focus on publishing the data with further discussion on how to establish the size of the market. I have downloaded some of the most relevant consumption data and graphed it for easy analyses. I have printed them in a pdf document that is available for viewing and downloading from the web site. That document forms a supplement to this newsletter, http://www.world-ostrich.org/member/news57sup.htm. The statistics are not direct comparisons to those published in earlier newsletters as the format in which they are now presented and the country groupings have changed with the new database. The database provides a greater of amount of information made freely available.
3. Market Size There are two aspects when discussing market size.
a. Existing Market The ostrich meat has been available for sale for no more than 15 years, with limited production and sales slow to develop as a result of such things as :
b. Potential Market Understanding the potential market should be the area of focus in order to develop a sustainable industry, provided there is production to support the development and the meat produced to an acceptable quality, consistently supplied and at the right price.
Figure 1 confirms the continual rapid growth of meat consumption that continues to be driven by increasing wealth in developing countries. The total meat market (excluding fish) has grown from in excess of 150 million tonnes in 1990 to 240 million tonnes in 2005. That is a growth rate of almost 60% in 15 years, thus confirming the predictions of significant growth in meat consumption.
Figure 1 - World Meat Consumption The consumption of all other meats Rabbit, Equine, “Duck Goose and Guinea Fowl” and “Meat Not Elsewhere Classified (including camel and game)” - as illustrated in Figure 1 - is a very small percentage of the total consumption. The major reason for this is the lack of efficiencies in production of those species that make up that group. However, it is still a group showing rapid growth, moving from just short of 8 million tonnes to in excess of 13 million tonnes over 15 years (Figure 2).
Figure 2 - Other Meat World Consumption by Region Figure 2 illustrates the regional distribution of consumption of other meats. Table 1 is the index of the supplement to this newsletter, with a number of graphics. The supplement is available only on line by clicking this link. We are a World Association, therefore it is important to reflect the variations in consumption by region as our markets are all different. Slide 6 illustrates the consumption of other meats in the different regions and, when studied, readers will be amazed at the significant variations from region to region. No two regions are the same.
So what is the size of the potential size of the market? To capture just 1% of the world 2005 alternative meat market requires nearly 3m slaughter ostriches/annum.
What is the size of your market potential?
The answer to that question depends on a number of factors - such as:
Understanding fully the controlling influences of that final point is the key to progressing this industry and to date remains the barrier to progress.
4. What is our Current Selling Price?
To answer that question requires time to study the pig, poultry and beef industries and their progress to maturity over the last 50 years. Such a study explains why it is a challenge to compete at that level at this stage of our industry..but the potential is there to be extremely competitive. The comparative growth curves in Figure 3 are probably familiar to most readers. The lower curve is the current well documented industry average, the Gompertz A is a model that was developed by the scientists at Stellenbosch University in South Africa in 1992 as the potential growth achievable, when birds grow to their full genetic potential. The US field trial was produced in 1996/97 to demonstrate the type of growth farmers were achieving in the US during the period until their industry collapsed at the end of the breeder market. The current industry average achieves a liveweight of 95kgs in 365 days. Note the growth in the top curve achieves the same liveweight in 150 days, and the US birds in 210 days before any genetic work has been started. That is a tremendous saving on feed usage.
Figure 3 - Comparative Growth Curves of Ostrich The green area in Figure 4 illustrates the difference in weight, the majority of the weight difference is in meat, which means significantly more revenue per bird, as that equates to a minimum of 50% additional meat and in many cases, as much as 100%. Processing costs are also reduced. As the birds can only eat a certain amount each day, clearly, when additional weight is gained for the same amount of feed, the conversion rate of feed to meat is reduced.
Figure 4 - Additional Meat It requires feed containing the right nutrients at sufficient levels to make this difference, but this is the way to reduce the costs of production. Paying attention to Optimising the genetic feed conversion supported by tight management controls have created the efficiencies now seen in pig and poultry production – and is required to produce meat at competitive prices. It can be argued that our selling prices have to be in the exclusive meat market were we operate at lower volume and start the process of genetic improvement to bring about the improved efficiencies that pig and poultry production has witnessed over the past 50 years.
Prices are currently increasing as supplies reduce. This is an opportunity to introduce production systems that can improve efficiencies to enable the industry to compete on equal terms with other types of meat.
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