Issue No. 40 - July 2006

 

1.      Future Demand of Ostrich Meat

2.      Trends

3.      Barriers

4.      Opportunities

5.      AGM

1.      Future Demand of Ostrich Meat

Newsletter No. 30 discussed the rapid growth of meat consumption since 1961 and projected growth to 2025.  The discussion highlighted the high proportion of the growth coming from pig and poultry, illustrating the tremendous efficiencies that these industries have achieved over the past few decades. 

 

Figure 1 - World Meat Consumption

 

Figure 1 is a reminder of that discussion illustrating the growth since 1961 and the projected growth to 2025. 

 

This month we are going to discuss the markets in the different regions and the implication on the potential for our fledgling ostrich industry to help gain a better understanding of the markets in which we are operating.    

 

2.      Trends

Figure 2 provides the comparisons in different regions of the world.  The distribution of the growth is not available but the majority of the projected increased production will come from the developing countries rather than simply population growth.

 

Set alongside each other for comparative purposes, these statistics show clearly the trends in the different regions; trends in total consumption and the variations in type of meat consumed in the regions.   

 

 Figure 2 - Meat Consumption Comparisons by Region and Type^[I]

 

There are several important elements to observe when viewing these graphs:

a.      Rate of Growth over the period

b.      Total Tonnage (left axis of graph), as these do vary from graph to graph

c.      Variation of type of meat consumed in the different regions

d.      Other meats, shown in green, is the sector into which Ostrich meat currently falls

 

a.     Rate of Growth

The difference in rate of growth in the industrialised regions by comparison to the developing regions is very marked.  Note how the UK consumption has changed very little over the period and actually went down in the decade between 1971 and 1981 that was before BSE was identified. 

 

The UK and Europe show a drop in beef consumption when BSE was at its height.  BSE generated interest in alternative meats, a demand that simply could not be satisfied, as the alternatives were not produced in sufficient volume.

 

In contrast, Asia has shown a huge increase in consumption over the period.  It can be considered that some of this increased consumption is due to improved recording systems, but there is also clear evidence of significant growth due to the improving economies in the region.  The consumption of meat in China is a significant proportion of the growth in meat consumption in Asia and is therefore shown independently. 

 

b.     Tonnage

Tonnages in Europe and North America are amazingly similar for the period, see Figure 3

 

Oceania’s tonnage at only 10% of European tonnage is proportionate to the differences in population in the two regions. 

 

“South Asia” and “East and South East Asia” combined was 4million tonnes, 26% of European consumption in 1961, increasing to 28m tonnes, 58% of European consumption by 2001.

 

In contrast, Asia as a group recorded consumption of 9million tonnes, 52% of European consumption in 1961.  By 2001 this tonnage had increased to 97million tonnes, 281% of European consumption. Examined more closely, it can be seen that when China is separated from the rest of Asia, the remainder of Asian tonnage in 2001 is very similar to that of Europe and North America, with China dominant in the region at 66million metric tonnes, 190% of European consumption. 

 

Figure 3 - Regional Meat Consumption as a % of European Meat Consumption

 

Europe and the US combined by 2001 have fallen from 50% of world meat consumption in 1961 to only 30% in 2001, but their total tonnage consumed has more than doubled in the same period.  

 

These figures clearly demonstrate consumption increasing faster in the developing regions, with China showing the fastest growth.

 

c.      Type of Meat Consumed

Understanding the trends related to type of meat consumed is a key factor to understanding why the growth in meat consumption has been so high, population growth and wealth apart.  It is also the key to appreciating the opportunities for Ostrich production in the different regions (markets).  Ostrich benefits the different markets in different ways.

 

When examining Figure 2 note the growth of pork and poultry consumption by comparison to Beef and “Mutton and Goat”.  The combined total of the pig and poultry sectors has taken increasing market share in every region but with significant variations in the proportion of pig and poultry from region to region.

 

The pig and poultry industries have become extremely efficient.  These efficiencies have significantly reduced the costs per kilo of meat making these meats now available to people from lower income groups.   Ostrich provide an additional meat that can be produced to similar levels of efficiency and therefore costs.

 

Taking region by region, pig meat has been dominant over poultry in Europe, China and until recently in the UK.  The remaining regions show poultry as the dominant type taking the larger market share. 

 

Goat and Sheep meat are included in the same category.  The UK, New Zealand and Australia are major producers of lamb as well as major consumers of lamb meat, as indicated in these graphics. 

 

The majority of the goat meat will be consumed in Asia and also in the Arab nations, a region that consumes a significant proportion of lamb, as the Moslem population are unable to consume Pig meat.  Ostrich offers variety by making available a meat that can be raised to the same efficiencies as pig and poultry meat. 

 

It will take a decade or two from the introduction of productive systems to achieving the volumes and efficiencies of production required to support the meat consumption in the high volume markets.  During the development phase, it can be seen in Figure 4 that Europe currently consumes around 30% of all other meat.  Europe has a higher net wealth customer seeking alternative meats. It can be expected that the European consumer will pay a premium for ostrich meat while volumes are low, but only if the meat is available on a consistent basis.

 

d.     Other Meats

Probably better known in the market place as “alternative meats”, Ostrich falls into this sector as defined by the FAO.

 

The important factor in this discussion is the fact that Ostrich, raised correctly, can be produced with similar and, in time, maybe even greater efficiency than pig or poultry. 

 

Figure 4 illustrates the current distribution of consumption of other meats (Alternative Meats).  It can be seen that Europe currently consumes around 30% of this category. 

 

Figure 4 - Comparative Consumption Meat Other

 

Alternative meats include Venison, Crocodile, Zebra, Wild Boar, Kangaroo, Camel, Horse, Rabbit as well as Ostrich and Emu.  All different specie of deer and antelope fall under Venison and includes springbok from South Africa, Elk and Moose from North America and the many different types of deer.    Horse and Rabbit meat has been common in some European countries, but are not accepted by all European markets.  The venison sourced from wild sources will always be limited in supply.  Deer and Antelope are ruminant and not as feed efficient as many monograstric specie. 

 

Ostrich on the other hand is proven under the correct management systems to be extremely feed efficient and a very viable “alternative meat” to supply the volume market.  This is particularly beneficial for those unable to eat Pig meat to provide more variety of meat.

 

3.       Barriers

There are mixed feelings today amongst many we talk to regarding the future of our fledgling industry.  Most are aware of the opportunities discussed above and the reason for becoming involved in Ostrich production.   

 

The main barrier to success and servicing these market opportunities remains the lack of production caused by the poor production performances on farm, resulting in high costs of production.   These concerns are real as poor egg production, low fertility, low hatchability, high chick mortality, late slaughter and low slaughter weight continue to be the norm. 

 

To overcome these barriers requires greater understanding as to the causes.

 

The primary reason for these poor production results is due to the poor information that has been prevalent on methods of production; most of this information breaks the rules for successful commercial livestock production.  Some examples:

 

a.     Ostrich can be produced using low value feed ingredients 

Adult Ostrich can survive eating very little; adult ostrich food consumption is only 1.4% of their body weight per day.  In contrast, an adult chicken consumes 8.5% of her body weight in food per day.  The implication of this is that to be productive every ounce of ostrich feed must be nutrient dense in order to provide the commercial ostrich with sufficient nutrients to be able to produce commercial levels of production. 

 

b.     Poultry type rations

Many rations we see for ostrich are poultry style rations.  Ostrich are not poultry. 

 

c.      Misleading Published Information^[II]

Newsletter No. 34 discussed recently published papers and the continued references to outdated farming methods including flushing and teasing, mid-season breeding rest, use of poor quality forages and 350+ day slaughter ages.

 

Newsletter No. 38 discussed information on the internet, most of which was first published over 10 years ago and based on no science or proven experience.  We still hear people quoting certain practices because they have read them somewhere and assume them necessary practices to follow. 

 

4.      Opportunities

Ostrich is a new meat in every market.  Ostrich meat only entered Europe a little over a decade ago with buyers still looking for reliable and sustainable supplies.   The above discussion clearly indicates that Ostrich meat has a place in many markets.  In the long term, Ostrich can supply red meat with the efficiency of Pig and Poultry.  While volumes remain low, Ostrich meat can service the high-end niche markets in all regions. 

 

In January 2005, we highlighted that our competition is not each other, rather our competition is the other specie.  It can be seen that there is room for all, and where pig meat is not an option, ostrich provides the consumers with increased variety of meat.  We also discussed the development of WOMRAD, a commercial company that would be developed to coordinate ostrich production methods, marketing, research and development.  We can report is that a company to undertake these functions is being developed and has been approved for a specific funding initiative.  Any member wishing to know more about this, please communicate with your Chairman, Stan Stewart.

 

5.      Annual General Meeting and Future Directors

A reminder that the AGM will be held on 19th September and we are seeking nominations for directors.  Daryl Holle, Craig Culley and Rayan Hayder are the directors due to retire this year and all offer themselves for re-election.  If you would like to serve as a director or nominate someone to serve, please inform Craig. 

 

6.      Contributions

As always, we ask for contributions.  The WOA offers channels of communication for all participants to enable our fledgling industry to share experiences and develop strategies.

Any comments or suggestions, please post either to the members list [email protected] or Craig at [email protected]

Ask not only what the WOA can do for you but also what you can do for the WOA.